To help you better understand the funds in which you’ve invested, Bâtirente’s Investment Strategy Manager, Jean-François Dumais,* offers his analysis here of the economic conditions for the third quarter of 2023.
Economic performance
Central bank interest rate hikes have had an impact on global inflation growth, which is far below the peak reached in the summer of 2022. In Canada, this rate dropped from a high of 8.1% in June 2022 to 4.0% by August 31, 2023.
We’re approaching the end of this money tightening measure (i.e., increased central bank rates). Market players are not expecting any further increases in Canada, while predicting just one for the U.S.
However, there is still some uncertainty about where these rates are headed due to inflation, which still hovers well above the 2% target of North American central banks. What’s more, the third quarter saw resource prices climb (e.g., a surge of nearly 30% in price per barrel of oil), which could drive inflation upward.
These rates could therefore stabilize at higher levels for a prolonged period. The rate drops projected until recently for the second half of 2023 have now been pushed back to the second half of 2024.
Lastly, the more difficult monetary conditions will likely unleash a recession by the end of the first quarter of 2024. We’ve already noticed a slowdown in Canada’s economic growth. Within one year, gross domestic product (GDP) fell from 4.6%, in the summer of 2022, to its current 1.1%.
Nonetheless, the recession should be limited on either side of the border primarily due to the labour shortage.
Market performance
Expectations of high interest rates over a prolonged period led to pessimism in financial markets.
The all-country equity index recorded a return of -1.3% (in Canadian dollars) in the third quarter, while Canada’s main index (S&P/TSX) posted a performance of -2.2%.
The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index had a -3.8% return.
On a final note, public infrastructure and real estate indices also suffered negative impacts. This is evident from the -5.9% performance (in Canadian dollars) for infrastructure and -3.3% (in Canadian dollars) for real estate.
What’s important to keep in mind at this time is that whatever your investment portfolio, this was a tough quarter for everyone. Furthermore, in periods of volatility, the key is to stay the course and look to the long term to ensure the success of a project as important as your retirement.
*Jean-François Dumais has worked as an Investment Strategy Manager at Bâtirente since 2019. Along with a Master of Business Administration (MBA) degree (Finance specialization), he has nearly 20 years’ experience in financial markets.